segunda-feira, 3 de novembro de 2008

11/4 guide

Spectator guide:

7 pm (Midnight UK Time)
Polls close in six states. The battleground states of Virginia and Indiana won’t be called instantly but watch to see if Georgia and South Carolina are. If they’re not, that suggests that black turnout has soared.

If Virginia is called within the hour for Obama, that means that he is almost certainly on course for victory and quite comfortably. 

7.30 pm
Ohio’s polls close. This state is an absolute must win for McCain but they don’t count their votes quickly here. 

8 pm
15 states and the District of Colombia cease voting. Watch to see if New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are called fats, polls suggest that Obama is ahead in these states by close to double-digit margins but McCain needs Pennsylvania to win. Also, watch to see if Florida—where outside the Panhandle polls closed at 7—is called earlier than expected. The Sunshine state was expected to be relatively easy for McCain but 30 almost 30 percent of Floridians with a mortgage are now in negative equity which has given Obama an opening. One other state to watch is Missouri, Obama doesn’t need it to get to 270 but he has campaigned there in recent days.

Polls close in North Carolina and Arkansas. North Carolina has turned out to be one of the surprise battleground states. If Obama wins this state that is emblematic of the new South, expect there to be much talk about realignment.

Another 13 states finish voting. The state to watch here is Colorado which Obama looks set to flip. Also closing at this hour is McCain’s home state of Arizona. I expect that he will win the state but the Obama campaign has made a last minute play for it.

5 more states finish including Iowa. This was expected to be a close state but most polls show Obama with a commanding lead. 

Another six states close but none are expected to be key to the result.

Sarah Palin’s home state of Alaska finishes things up. But I suspect things will actually have wrapped up an hour or so beforehand.

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